The Impact of AI and Robotics on Future Employment and the Need for Universal Basic Income (UBI)

The Coming Disruption

Two interwoven technologies, AI and general-purpose robotics, are poised to disrupt civilization more profoundly than any prior advancements. These technologies will eventually result in a near-total loss of traditional employment. However, when combined with advances in space engineering, they have the potential to create abundance for all humanity and lead to the dissolution of conventional economies. However, to mitigate the adverse effects on society during this transition, it is crucial to implement a Universal Basic Income (UBI) program.

Present Day Effects of AI on Employment

AI has already started to replace primarily white-collar workers, even though we are still at the first of OpenAI's five levels towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It stands to reason that with each new generation of AI, the number of jobs that can be effectively replaced will increase. I believe the entertainment industry will soon experience significant disruption as AI becomes capable of not just writing, but also fully producing TV shows, movies, and video games, utilizing digital likenesses or entirely artificial characters.

Robots at Work

Robotics are already being utilized in diverse settings, from restaurants to Tesla factories. Beyond directly replacing jobs, the introduction of robots also contributes to decreased wages. Robots perform many tasks faster than humans and can be designed with specialized form factors to optimize efficiency. They require significantly less downtime and can operate in hazardous environments where human presence would be risky.

Combined Technologies: Accelerating the Pace

The combination of AI and robotics, along with their ongoing advancements, will dramatically accelerate the rate of job replacement.

These technologies are expected to make significant strides over the next decade. Autonomous vehicles could revolutionize the transportation industry and gig economy before the decade's end. Eventually, general-purpose robots like Tesla's Optimus will surpass non-augmented humans in capability due to their AGI and superior physical abilities. While many believe humans will always maintain an edge in creativity, I consider this view to be mere self-aggrandizement.

Increasing Unemployment Requires Unconditional Income

As AI agents increasingly handle mental tasks and robots take over physical labor, the need for human productivity will steadily decline. Consequently, it will be essential to provide an unconditional income for the unemployed. To avoid disincentivizing work, this income should also be available to those who continue working. While I'm not an economist, there are budget-neutral proposals being made. I believe that through measures such as implementing a Value Added Tax (VAT), eliminating redundant social programs, and leveraging public sector dividends, a Universal Basic Income (UBI) could be made feasible.

The Danger of Increasing Wealth Gaps

With the proper implementation of UBI, we can transition much more smoothly from the current economy to a post-scarcity one. Without being alarmist, the alternative could be a drastic increase in the wealth gap, as unemployment soars while those with passive income, such as from rental properties or business equity, remain largely unaffected. This would inevitably lead to civil unrest, potentially unraveling the very fabric of our society. The cost of such an outcome would be incalculable and entirely avoidable.

Embracing the Future

As AI and robotics accelerate unemployment rates, it is imperative to implement economic policies that protect all affected individuals, particularly the expanding lower class. The impacts of these technologies are already evident. While some advocate for regulations to restrict workplace automation, such measures would ultimately hinder economic progress and create opportunities for global rivals. Instead, we should focus on redistributing the profits from increased productivity back to the people. If we continue to judge individuals' worth based on their productivity, technology will render us all obsolete. By adopting a Universal Basic Income (UBI), we have the opportunity to transition to a post-scarcity society with minimal friction.